Stock Returns and the Mind: An Unlikely Result that Could Change Our Understanding of Consciousness
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Plain English Summary
Could humanity's collective mental state nudge stock markets? This study uses data from the Global Consciousness Project — a worldwide network of random number generators believed by some to become less random during major world events — and asks whether daily peak readings predict stock returns. Across 5,200 trading days over two decades, the author found small but statistically significant non-linear links between the GCP's daily peak score and returns on the Dow Jones Global Equity Index, plus 11 of 12 other major indexes. Intriguingly, yesterday's GCP peak seemed to predict today's returns. Before you bet your retirement on psychic vibes, though, the caveats are serious: the effect explains only 0.2 to 0.3 percent of market movement, the model was chosen after seeing the data rather than pre-registered, and ordinary explanations like shared global news driving both arousal and markets haven't been ruled out.
Abstract
Emotions and feelings affect economic systems. This is well known as e.g. stock markets tend to react to sudden political and emotional events. However, the link between emotions, consciousness, and economic systems at a deeper level than the aggregate resulting action of people at large is yet to be explored and understood. In this paper, a first building block is presented as it is shown that a variable derived from the random numbers obtained by the Global Consciousness Project is statistically related to various well-known stock market index returns. The relationship is shown to be non-linear and that variations in the variable, to some extent, predate the underlying trade. The results presented are found to be robust and qualitatively unaffected by the removal of outliers. Apart from the pure economic value of these findings, the results have truly baffling implications. This is the case as they confirm some previous unorthodox research suggesting that consciousness stretches out beyond the locally confined space of our heads and that consciousness can affect hardware-generated random numbers at a distance. Thus, these results put doubt on the existing paradigm with regards to consciousness and highlight the need for further research.
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Cites
- Reexamining Psychokinesis: Commentary on the Bösch, Steinkamp and Boller Meta-Analysis — Radin, D (2006)
- Searching for Global Consciousness: A Seventeen Year Exploration — Bancel, Peter A (2017)
- Searching for Global Consciousness: A Seventeen Year Exploration — Bancel, Peter A (2017)
- Evidence for Consciousness-Related Anomalies in Random Physical Systems — Radin, Dean I (1989)
- Examining Psychokinesis: The Interaction of Human Intention With Random Number Generators—A Meta-Analysis — Bösch, Holger (2006)
- Correlations of Random Binary Sequences with Pre-Stated Operator Intention: A Review of a 12-Year Program — Jahn, Robert G (1997)
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📋 Cite this paper
Holmberg, Ulf (2020). Stock Returns and the Mind: An Unlikely Result that Could Change Our Understanding of Consciousness. Journal of Consciousness Studies.
@article{holmberg_2020_stock,
title = {Stock Returns and the Mind: An Unlikely Result that Could Change Our Understanding of Consciousness},
author = {Holmberg, Ulf},
year = {2020},
journal = {Journal of Consciousness Studies},
}