Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences
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Plain English Summary
This companion review tackles the same question — real evidence for perception beyond physical senses? — laying out raw numbers impressively. Across 200-plus studies and 6,000-plus participants, Tressoldi examined six experimental setups using traditional statistics and Bayesian analysis (which measures how much data shifts odds toward one explanation). Every protocol beat chance statistically. But the Bayesian results get wild: ganzfeld experiments (relaxed participants identifying hidden images) hit a Bayes factor of nearly 19 million. Remote viewing reached 25 billion. Presentiment — your body seemingly reacting before something happens — scored an astronomical 28.9 trillion. Normal-consciousness protocols actually favored the skeptical explanation. Quality-versus-effect-size correlations were mixed: modestly positive (r=0.05 to 0.36) for the three highest-evidence protocols when rated by independent coders, but near-zero or slightly negative for some protocols when measured by sample size — a nuanced picture that neither clearly supports nor refutes the "it's all bad methodology" critique.
Abstract
Starting from the famous phrase "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," we will present the evidence supporting the concept that human visual perception may have non-local properties, in other words, that it may operate beyond the space and time constraints of sensory organs, in order to discuss which criteria can be used to define evidence as extraordinary. This evidence has been obtained from seven databases which are related to six different protocols used to test the reality and the functioning of non-local perception, analyzed using both a frequentist and a new Bayesian meta-analysis statistical procedure. According to a frequentist meta-analysis, the null hypothesis can be rejected for all six protocols even if the effect sizes range from 0.007 to 0.28. According to Bayesian meta-analysis, the Bayes factors provides strong evidence to support the alternative hypothesis (H1) over the null hypothesis (H0), but only for three out of the six protocols. We will discuss whether quantitative psychology can contribute to defining the criteria for the acceptance of new scientific ideas in order to avoid the inconclusive controversies between supporters and opponents.
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- Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, A Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences — Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2011)
- Replication Unreliability in Psychology: Elusive Phenomena or "Elusive" Statistical Power? — Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2012)
- Mental Connection at Distance: Useful for Solving Difficult Tasks? — Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2011)
- Extrasensory Perception and Quantum Models of Cognition — Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2010)
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📋 Cite this paper
Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2011). Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences. Frontiers in Psychology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00117
@article{tressoldi_2011_extraordinary_claims,
title = {Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences},
author = {Tressoldi, Patrizio E},
year = {2011},
journal = {Frontiers in Psychology},
doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00117},
}